Kenya’s New Climate Pledge Is Bold, But Is It Fair?

“While Kenya’s NDC gestures toward inclusivity, it misses several critical justice touchpoints,” argue Abigael Kima and Jaël Poelen of Hivos’s Voices for Just Climate Action program.

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By Abigael Kima & Jaël Poelen

With its latest Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 3.0, Kenya has positioned itself as a climate leader, setting ambitious goals to slash emissions by 35% and build a resilient, green economy by 2035.

At first glance, it is inspiring, especially from a country responsible for just 0.16% of global greenhouse gas emissions. But ambition and action, while necessary, are not the same as justice. And for Kenya’s frontline communities, those already living on the edge of climate impacts, the question isn’t just how bold this NDC is, but who it is bold for.

NDCs are at the heart of the Paris Agreement, the global climate pact where every country commits to doing its part to limit warming to 1.5C. Each updated NDC is expected to raise ambition and create a blueprint for national climate action until 2035, aligning with the global goals. Kenya’s latest NDC does just that – on paper.

The new plan outlines a future of lowered emissions and increased investment in climate resilience. It is framed not only as a climate action roadmap but also as a national investment tool, designed to boost sustainability and prosperity. The document aligns with global frameworks like the Paris Agreement and its Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), signaling Kenya’s readiness to lead in climate diplomacy.

But as impressive as this may sound, it raises an uncomfortable question: can this promise of resilience and green growth anchored on energy policy reforms reach those most at risk, such as smallholder farmers, off-grid communities, and women in arid lands, without a strong foundation in justice?

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Impact on Frontline Communities

At its core, climate justice is about more than emissions, it is about fairness. It means acknowledging the unequal burdens of climate change, respecting the diverse needs of affected communities, and ensuring meaningful participation in shaping the policies that govern their future. It means distributing resources not just efficiently, but equitably, so that the most vulnerable are not left behind.

While Kenya’s NDC gestures toward inclusivity, it misses several critical justice touchpoints.

First, consider the distribution of goods and services, specifically energy. In Kenya, access to energy remains uneven, and simply expanding access is not enough. Energy, as a means to an end, must be understood in terms of who it serves and for what purpose. To truly embed justice into power reforms, the NDC must confront the reality of energy poverty in local communities. This requires addressing not only provision, but also productive use: ensuring that communities can leverage energy access for economic resilience. A justice-centered NDC would go beyond basic provision to address affordability, usability, and long-term local benefit.

Second, there are concerns around financing. While the NDC is grounded in the principles of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities, as well as Article 9 of the Paris Agreement, it places heavy emphasis on mobilizing private capital by “boosting private sector investment.” Although private finance is essential in the era of green investment, this approach risks undermining climate justice for frontline communities. Without clear regulatory frameworks, reliance on private capital could sideline public interests and deepen inequalities.

Kenya must strike a careful balance: welcoming private investment while ensuring it aligns with justice goals and does not compromise the established climate finance architecture of the Paris Agreement.

Finally, climate justice demands genuine participation. It is about enabling people to take part in shaping the environmental policies that affect their lives. This includes the fair distribution of goods, the right to live a healthy life, and the protection of the climate-vulnerable. While the NDC promotes a “whole-of-government, whole-of-community” strategy for implementation, the process that led to its development appears top-down.

Participation must begin at the policy design stage, not just during implementation. Without this, the sense of community ownership is weakened, and with it, the potential for successful and just implementation.

What Is Necessary Ahead of 2031?

Kenya’s climate roadmap is ambitious, and many elements, like the focus on gender, adaptation, and loss and damage, are commendable. But if it is to be a true blueprint for justice that will be implemented in the next six years, three shifts are needed:

1. Prioritize community needs in energy policy, including local productive use.
2. Regulate and guide private investment to serve justice, not just markets.
3. Ensure participatory governance from policy design to implementation.

The next phase of the NDC must fight for fairness as fiercely as it fights for emissions cuts. Kenya has already shown that climate ambition can rise from the Global Majority. Now it has the chance to prove that climate justice can, too. The question isn’t just whether we will cut carbon. It is whether we will build a future where every Kenyan has a place, and a voice, in the solution.

Featured image: Climate Centre/Flickr.

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About the authors:

Abigael Kima is a leading climate justice advocate from Kenya, a Project Officer at Hivos under the Voices for Just Climate Action program and hosts the Hali Hewa Podcast about African climate stories.

Jaël Poelen is the Global Advocacy and Communications Officer at Hivos for the Voices for Just Climate Action program, which aims to amplify the voices of people and communities most affected by climate change.