Artificial intelligence is showing promise in tropical cyclone forecasting, with AI-powered models matching or even exceeding the accuracy of traditional physics-based models, particularly in track predictions. With hurricanes and typhoons poised to become more destructive with climate change, these advancements are crucial in enhancing early warning systems and improving disaster preparedness and response strategies.

—

When Severe Tropical Storm Wutip hit Southeast Asia early last month, AI forecasting models outperformed traditional computer models in predicting the storm’s path.

The Hong Kong Observatory, which for some time has been relying on both physics-based and AI-powered forecasting models, said that both Fuxi, an AI model developed by Fudan University, and the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) by the UK-based European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), estimated that Wutip would take a more westerly path. The prediction was ultimately closer to the storm’s actual track than that of two numerical weather prediction models.

AI forecasting models are improving quickly, having repeatedly shown to be at least “as accurate as, and often more accurate” than, their physics-based counterparts.

AIFS predictions outperformed conventional models’ predictions by up to 20% during an 18-month testing period. When ECMWF rolled it out in February, it described it as a “milestone” poised to “transform weather science and predictions.”

Private companies like Google and Microsoft have also entered the competition, with notable achievements. Last month, Google DeepMind and Google Research unveiled Weather Lab, an interactive website showcasing the AI models the company has been working on. Users can navigate the intutitive interface, comparing AI and physics-based forecasts of dozens of named storms from the past four years.

The company claims that in tests for 2023–24 storms in the North Atlantic and East Pacific, its 5-day track forecasts were about 85 miles (about 136 kilometers) closer to actual tracks than ECMWF’s Ensemble (ENS) – which is widely regarded as the best and most reliable weather forecasting model currently in existence.

Kate Musgrave, a Research Scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, which evaluated Google’s AI model, said it had “comparable or greater skill than the best operational models for track and intensity.”

Indeed, when Category 4 Hurricane Helene hit the Florida Big Bend region last September, bringing catastrophic inland flooding, extreme winds, deadly storm surge, and numerous tornadoes that claimed 250 lives, Google’s experimental model correctly estimated both its path and wind intensity. ENS’s path prediction was also fairly accurate, though the physics-based model forecasted wind speeds shy of a Category 1 hurricane.

While promising, this level of accuracy is not always a given.

As WFLA’s Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist Jeff Berardelli points out, intensity forecasting is much harder than track forecasting, even for AI models. And Google’s forecast of last year’s Hurricane Milton is a compelling case in point.

While Google AI model’s path predictions were just miles off from the storms’ actual paths, its intensity forecast was significantly off track. The model predicted a hurricane that would fall short of reaching even a Category 2, despite Milton ultimately escalating to a devastating Category 5 storm – becoming the most intense to hit the Gulf of Mexico since Hurricane Rita in 2005.

What happened with Milton is something known as rapid intensification. Only two days passed between the time it formed in the Gulf of Mexico and the time it reached Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, the most widely recognized risk assessment method for hurricanes. Never had a hurricane intensified to quickly before, according to NASA.

Rapid intensification poses a significant threat due to the potential for increased wind speed and storm surge, as well as the reduced time available for authorities to issue warnings, endangering coastal communities.

Nearly 80% of major hurricanes (category 3-5) undergo rapid intensification, making it extremely challenging for hurricane models, AI models or otherwise, to accurately forecast their intensity. 

A 2023 study suggested that the fastest-strengthening Atlantic tropical storms between 2001 and 2020 – including billion-dollar hurricanes Sandy (2012), Harvey (2017), Ida (2021), and Ian (2022) – intensified on average almost 29% more quickly as human-made greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the planet and oceans. The number of storms going from Category 1 or weaker to Category 3 or stronger in 36 hours has doubled in the same period. 

Researchers from the Institute of Oceanology at the Chinese Academy of Sciences have developed an AI model that combines satellite, atmospheric and oceanic data to forecast the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes and typhoons. Tested on data from the tropical cyclone periods in the Northwest Pacific between 2020 and 2021, the model achieved accuracy of 92.3% – a 12% improvement compared to existing AI methods. It also reduced false alarm rates by three times to just 8.9%, according to a paper published in January.

While the findings show “promising potential for practical applications,” testing on a larger sample is still needed, considering that tropical cyclone characteristics vary significantly across ocean basins, the study concluded.

You might also like: What Are Tropical Cyclones? Hurricanes and Typhoons, And Their Link to Climate Change, Explained

Faster and More Energy Efficient

“You will never have 100% accuracy of the weather; that’s simply impossible. Our atmosphere is chaotic, our Earth system is chaotic,” said Florian Pappenberger, Deputy Director-General and Director of Forecasts and Services at ECMWF. But while still uncertain, AI-generated forecast is “far more accurate, better than in the past,” he added. “That allows people to make better decisions, to plan better. I find this exciting.”

AI models are not only promising accurate forecasts, but are also doing so much faster and with significantly less energy. At a time when human-made global warming is bringing about a new era of bigger, deadlier typhoons, this becomes indespensible.

ECMWF’s AIFS can predict the track of tropical cyclones 12 hours further ahead, and requires approximately 1,000 times less energy than their physics-based counterparts to do so. Google’s AI model requires about a minute to complete a 15-day forecast of a cyclone’s formation, track, intensity, size and shape, something that numerical weather prediction methods need several hours for.

This is because traditional models’ predictions are based on complex equations on a global grid that necessitate substantial computational power and advanced supercomputers, with each run often taking several hours to complete. Contrastingly, AI models use neural networks to quickly analyze patterns in historical data, skipping the need for solving complex physics equations.

Recognizing that “the pace of weather modeling innovation is increasing,” NOAA’s National Hurricane Center earlier this month announced it is teaming up with Google to improve tropical cyclone forecast and “maximize the benefits” of AI innovation in the sector.

As promising and powerful as they are, AI models “continue to depend on the historical and real-time availability of atmospheric analysis datasets produced by physical modelling centres, and the continued quality and coverage of the Earth’s observing system,” said Tom Andersson, a Research Engineer at Google DeepMind.

“This is a powerful new tool in the toolbox, but no single model is perfect. It will remain key that human forecasters evaluate a wide range of both ML and physics-based predictions when issuing public warnings for cyclone threats.”

Featured image: NOAA Satellites/Flickr.

The post Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Is Getting More Challenging. Can AI Offer Solutions? appeared first on Earth.Org.

Amazon’s emissions have tripled since 2019, when the company committed to achieving net-zero emissions across its operations by 2040.

—

Amazon’s emissions rose in 2024 for the first time in three years, primarily driven by the construction of new data centers and fuel consumption by its delivery providers.

The world’s largest online retailer’s emitted 68.25 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e), a 6% rise from the previous year, according to its latest Sustainability Report published Wednesday. Its emissions had been slowly declining since 2021, when the company emitted 71.54 million MTCO2e.

Fuel used by its transportation and logistics fleet and refrigerants to keep buildings and products cool are the main sources of Amazon’s direct emissions, according to the report. Meanwhile, building materials
and construction of data centers, along with fuel consumption by its delivery fleet, accounted for the largest share of indirect emissions. Purchased electricity to power buildings and charge electric vehicles also contributed to indirect emissions, albeit less.

The company is investing heavily in data centers as it increasingly relies on generative AI to improve customer experience.

Besides requiring energy-intensive materials like concrete and steel for their construction, data centers are also incresibly energy demanding and require huge amounts of water to cool down. This, Amazon says, represents “one of the biggest challenges with scaling AI.”

Amazon, like many of its rivals, is increasingly sourcing its electricity from cleaner, renewable sources as part of its efforts to cut emissions. In 2019, the company set a goal to reach net-zero carbon emissions across its global operations by 2040 but since then, its emissions have tripled.

Amazon and other tech giants like Google, Meta and Microsoft, have signed deals to access carbon-free nuclear power in the years to come, as they look to expand their energy-hungry data center network.

Google ealier this week also announced a $3 billion deal to access hydroelectric power from Brookfield Asset Management’s facilities in Pennsylvania, part of an effort to “responsibly grow the digital infrastructure that powers daily life for people, communities and businesses,” it said. It comes as the company pledged to invest $25 billion in data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure across the PJM, the US’s largest electric grid spanning 13 eastern and midwestern US states, including Pennsylvania.

By 2040, it is expected that the emissions from the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) industry as a whole will account for more than 14% of the global emissions, with data centres and communication networks representing the largest share.

Featured image: Chris Watt/Scottish Government via Flickr.

More on the topic: Generative AI Is Exhausting the Power Grid

The post Amazon Emissions Rose in 2024 Amid Expansion of Energy-Hungry Data Centers appeared first on Earth.Org.

While significant, the economic toll was lower compared to the same period last year, when extreme weather events racked up more than 93 billion yuan (US$12.9 billion) in economic losses.

—

Natural disasters in China affected over 23 million people and resulted in direct economic losses of 54.11 billion yuan (US$7.55 billion) in the first half of 2025, Reuters reported on Tuesday citing official data from the emergency response ministry.

307 people were reportedly dead or missing and 620,000 faced emergency evacuation as a result of earthquakes, landslides and flooding, Shen Zhanli, a ministry’s spokesperson, told reporters at a press conference on Tuesday. The latter accounted for 90% of the total economic damage – some 51 billion yuan – and nearly a third of the total deaths. Droughts, hailstorms and localized forest fires also affected the country.

347,200 houses were damaged and nearly 30,000 houses were destroyed, 28.7% more compared to the same period last year, while 2.19 million hectares of crops were damaged as a result of natural disasters, Reuters reported.

While significant, the economic toll was notably lower compared to the same period last year, when extreme weather events racked up more than 93 billion yuan (US$12.9 billion) in economic losses.

A national comprehensive natural disaster monitoring and early warning platform is being developed, utilizing predictive assessments and simulation models to track disasters, especially typhoons and floods, Zhanli added. These typically peak between late July and early August, coinciding with China’s main flood season.

Other adaptation and mitigation efforts include improving weather forecast’s accuracy and speed, strengthening remote sensing systems, and deploying drones for real-time disaster assessment, situational analysis, and search-and-rescue operations, ensuring faster and more precise emergency responses.

Climate Change

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the most authoritative scientific body on the subject, human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have led to an increase in both the frequency and intensity of some weather and climate extremes since pre-industrial times.

Climate change is intensifying the water cycle, bringing more intense rainfall and associated flooding. As our climate warms, the most extreme rainfall events have become more frequent and intense across much of the world.

Asia is hit particularly hard by climate change. Last month, the World Meteorological Organiation said the continent is warming at nearly twice the global average rate, intensifying extreme weather events that are “exacting an unacceptably high toll.”

Featured image: Wikimedia Commons.

You might also like: Hong Kong’s Outdoor Workers, Subdivided Flat Tenants Bear the Brunt of Summer Heat

The post Natural Disasters in China Rack Up $7.6bn in Direct Economic Losses in First Half of 2025: Reports appeared first on Earth.Org.

The Net-Zero Banking Alliance, set up in 2021 to encourage financial institutions to limit the environmental footprint of their operations and push toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, lost nearly 20 of its largest members so far this year.

—

HSBC, one of the world’s largest banking and financial services organizations, is withdrawing from the industry’s largest climate alliance, following an exodus by some of its largest members earlier this year.

London-headquartered HSBC announced the exit in a statement on Friday.

“The Net Zero Banking Alliance played a role in developing guiding frameworks to help banks establish their initial target-setting approach. With this foundation in place, and as we work towards updating and implementing our Net Zero Transition Plan later in 2025, we, like many of our global peers, have decided to withdraw from the NZBA,” the statement read.

The UN-sponsored initiative was set up in 2021 by former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to encourage financial institutions to limit the environmental footprint of their operations and push toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

HSBC’s exit comes on the heels of a trend where several major Wall Street banks are stepping back from climate initiatives. The alliance currently counts 127 banks across 44 countries, down from 144 banks in October 2024, according to its website.

The six biggest banks in the world’s largest economy – Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citi Bank, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan – quit the alliance earlier this year, and Canada’s six biggest banks followed suit shortly after.

All banks have insisted their decision would not impact their decarbonization pledges, with HSBC saying it will “remain resolute in this long-term ambition and in supporting our customers to finance their transition objectives.”

However, analysts say the moves send a clear signal to the market that climate change has become even less of a priority for financial institutions.

Jeanne Martin, Co-Director of Corporate Engagement at ShareAction, told Bloomberg that the company’s exit marks “yet another troubling signal around the bank’s commitment to addressing the climate crisis.” The London-based non-profit brought together a group of HSBC investors earlier this year to ask the bank to reaffirm its support for cutting CO2 emissions amid concerns that it was backing away from its climate pledges.

Meanwhile, the Net-Zero Banking Alliance reaffirmed its commitment to continue supporting its members in their journey to net zero

“Following a powerful mandate renewal and endorsement of its future direction from member banks in April this year, NZBA is helping facilitate the enabling conditions needed for banks’ clients to invest in the net-zero transition. In the last two months alone, this has included work on policy engagement, transition finance, and convening leaders from different sectors to increase understanding and accelerate progress,” a spokesperson for the alliance said.

“As the world urgently seeks to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, NZBA is on the strongest possible footing to support members’ continued progress on independent business strategies that are enabling the shift towards a net-zero economy,” the spokesperson added.

Featured image: Yusuf Miah/Pexels.

You might also like: BlackRock Quits Major Net Zero Alliance As Number of Wall Street Lenders Shying Away From Sustainability Efforts Grows

The post HSBC Joins Wall Street-Led Exodus From Net-Zero Alliance appeared first on Earth.Org.

1,500 more people died across 12 European cities during the recent heatwave than would have without the influence of climate change, according to researchers at World Weather Attribution.

—

A recent record-breaking heatwave in Europe caused 1,500 more deaths than would have occurred without the influence of climate change, a new study has concluded.

World Weather Attribution, an academic collaboration studying extreme event attribution, found that human-driven climate change tripled the number of heat-related deaths, as it increased heatwave temperatures up to 4C across a dozen cities.

Researchers from Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine focused on data from June 23 to July 2 and 12 European cities in Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, the UK, Greece, Croatia, and Hungary.

2,300 heat-related deaths were recorded during the 10-day period. Of these, 1,500 – or 65% – would not have happened if climate change had not intensified the heatwave, they concluded.

‘Silent Killer’

Heat is extremely dangerous for humans as it compromises physiological processes meant to keep the body cool.

Stress on human bodies caused by heat prevents normal daily activities and our ability to cool down properly. Areas that generally have more humidity can also put lives at risk. Sweat helps our bodies cool off, but humidity changes the way sweat evaporates from the body. Not being able to cool down puts people’s health at risk, and can lead to increased cardiovascular and respiratory complications, dehydration, heatstroke, higher blood pressure, and sleep deprivation. Some of these conditions can be deadly if not treated promptly.

While no one is truly immune to extreme heat, factors such as age and health condition, as well as exposure variables including occupation and socio-economic circumstances, can increase an individual’s vulnerability. Studies show that women – particularly pregnant women, children, and the elderly are especially at risk of developing severe heat-related symptoms.

Last month’s heatwave disproportionately affected these vulnerable categories, the World Weather Attribution study showed, with people aged 65 and over making up some 88% of the excess deaths.

Heatwaves kill nearly half a million people each year globally, making them the deadliest extreme weather event. Heat is often referred to as a “silent killer“, as accurately monitoring heat-related fatalities is challenging and many countries still lack adequate record-keeping systems. As a result, the documented number of heat-related deaths is often significantly lower than the actual toll.

“While a handful of deaths have been reported in Spain, France and Italy, thousands more people are expected to have died as a result of the blistering temperatures and their deaths won’t be recorded as heat-related,” said Malcolm Mistry, Assistant Professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and one of the study’s authors.

“Most people who die in heatwaves pass away at home or in hospitals as their bodies become overwhelmed and give in to pre-existing health conditions,” he added.

Record-Breaking Temperatures

The heatwave began in late June and extended through July, bringing temperatures above 40C in several countries and shattering temperature records in Spain and Portugal, with highs of 46C. The scorching weather prompted limitations on outdoor work schedules in Italy, the shutdown of over 1,300 schools and some nuclear reactors in France, and the eruption of wildfires across the Mediterranean.

The increase in extreme heat is a direct result of our warming planet, which is driven by greenhouse gasses that trap heat in the atmosphere. This raises Earth’s surface temperature, leading to longer and hotter heatwaves.

Last month was Europe’s fifth-warmest June in the record, although most of western and central Europe experienced warmer-than-average air temperatures. Western Europe as a whole saw its warmest June on record, with an average temperature of 20.49C, 2.81C above the 1991–2020 average, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Exceptional warmth also developed in the Mediterranean Sea, which reached a record-breaking temperature of 27C for June, 3.7C above the long-term average.

Featured image: Alisdare Hickson/Flickr.

Check out our 3-part series ‘Silent Killer’ on extreme heat

The post Death Toll of European Heatwave 3 Times Higher Because of Climate Change, Study Shows appeared first on Earth.Org.

ClimaMeter found that similar meteorological conditions in Texas, specifically in the Hill Country between San Antonio and Austin, are now up to 2 mm/day wetter and 1.5C warmer than they were in the past.

—

Torrential rains associated with a deadly flood that claimed over 100 lives across six counties in central Texas on Independence Day were intensified by human-made climate change, a new study has concluded.

The disaster unfolded rapidly on Friday, as exceptional downpours in Texas Hill Country increased the water level of the Guadalupe River by 26 feet (8 meters) within 45 minutes, bursting its banks and destroying everything in its path. Over 10 inches (254 mm) of rain fell across the region in just a few hours.

The study was conducted by ClimaMeter, a rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate funded by the European Union and the French National Centre for Scientific Research. By comparing past (1950-1986) and present (1987-2023) weather patterns in the region, researchers concluded that natural variability alone cannot explain the catastrophic floods and pointed at climate change as one of the main drivers of the event.

Specifically, they found that temperatures have increased up to 1.5C southern to the flood-affected area, while present-day conditions are up to 2 mm/day – or up to 7% – wetter in parts of central Texas and especially along the corridor from San Antonio to Austin. These changes, the study said, have created an environment more favorable to sudden, high-impact rainfall events.

Researchers also acknowledged that factors not taken into account for this study, such as land use change, urban sprawl, and warning system failutres, may have amplified the floods.

“The devastating floods in Texas reflect the growing impact of a warmer, more humid atmosphere fueled by climate change,” said Mireia Ginesta from the University of Oxford. “To protect communities now, it is essential to maintain strong support for weather forecasting and scientific research, ensuring accurate forecasts and effective early warnings that can save lives.”

The findings align with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s conclusions that climate change is intensifying the water cycle, leading to more intense rainfall and associated flooding.

A warmer atmosphere, heated by fossil fuel emissions, can hold more moisture, resulting in heavier downpours. For every 1C that Earth’s atmospheric temperature rises, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7%.

As climate scientist Andrew Dessler put it: “The role of climate change is like steroids for the weather – it injects an extra dose of intensity into existing weather patterns.”

Featured image: World Central Kitchen/Flickr.

More on the topic: Scrutiny Over Trump Cuts to Emergency Response and Weather Forecasting Agencies Mounts as Texas Flood Death Toll Climbs to 78

The post Heavy Rain in Texas Floods Intensified By Human-Driven Climate Change: Study appeared first on Earth.Org.

While there was “no evidence” that cuts to weather agencies affected weather warnings ahead of the floods, a well-known US meteorologist said these cuts “will eventually bite us with unneeded loss of life.”

—

At least 78 people have died and dozens remain missing after catastrophic floods wrecked havoc in Texas on Independence Day.

28 of the victims were children, Larry Leitha, sheriff of Kerr County in Texas Hill Country – the epicenter of the flooding – confirmed on Sunday.

The disaster unfolded rapidly on Friday, as torrential rain across central Texas increased the water level of the Guadalupe River by 26 feet (8 meters) within 45 minutes, bursting its banks and destroying everything in its path.

As search-and-rescue operations – some of the largest efforts in recent Texas history – continue, questions have surfaced regarding local authorities’ preparedness and the effectiveness of the warning systems in place.

Some Texas elected officials have blamed the National Weather Service (NWS) for issuing inadequate forecasts and warnings ahead of the storm. But meteorologists and former Weather Service officials have defended the forecasts, saying they were as good and accurate as they could be given the storm’s abrupt escalation, the New York Times reported.

Rapidly intensifying rainfall events like this one are inherently difficult to predict, and forecasters often cannot pinpoint exactly where and when high-intensity and heavily localized rainfall will occur, UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain explained. Flash floods, as the name suggests, are also very hard to predict due to their rapid and often sudden onset.

Criticism over the Trump administration’s recent cuts to emergency response and weather forecasting agencies have also mounted over the weekend. Experts have repeatedly warned that these cuts have diminished forecasters’ abilities to predict disasters and provide accurate advance warning. 

Meteorologist John Morales said on Saturday there was no evidence that cuts to weather agencies affected weather warnings ahead of the floods, though he added that these cuts “will eventually bite us with unneeded loss of life.” On Sunday, however, Morales pointed out at current vacancies at local NWS offices in key roles such as Meteorologist in Charge and Warning Coordination Meteorologist.

Some experts have warned that these staff shortages, which have doubled since Donald Trump took office in January, might have complicated forecasters’ ability to coordinate responses with local emergency management officials, the New York Times reported.

Trump was quick to reject the claims, while the White House said in a statement to media outlets that claims that NWS cuts were related to the tragedy were “shameful and disgusting.”

Climate Link

There is consensus among climate experts that events like this are becoming stronger and more frequent in a rapidly warming world.

A warmer atmosphere, heated by fossil fuel emissions, can hold more moisture, resulting in heavier downpours. For every 1C that Earth’s atmospheric temperature rises, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7%.

According to Climate Central, the low-level moisture fueling the weather system over Texas came from a warmer-than-average Gulf of Mexico. Sea temperatures here are currently 1-2F above average for this time of year owing to climate change.

“This kind of record-shattering rain (caused by slow-moving torrential thunderstorms) event is *precisely* that which is increasing the fastest in a warming climate,” said Swain. “So it’s not a question of whether climate change played a role–it’s only a question of how much.”

Temperatures have been abnormally high across the US in recent weeks, while much of Europe endured a deadly heatwave that shattered records in Portugal and Spain.

The post Scrutiny Over Trump Cuts to Emergency Response and Weather Forecasting Agencies Mounts as Texas Flood Death Toll Climbs to 78 appeared first on Earth.Org.

In its long-awaited advisory opinion, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACtHR) also affirmed states’ legal obligation to protect environmental defenders and ensure access to justice.

—

States and corporations have binding obligations under international law to address the climate crisis as a human rights emergency, Latin America’s top court on human rights ruled on Thursday.

Asked to clarify how states’ existing legal obligations apply in the urgent context of the climate emergency and its intersection with human rights, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACtHR) laid out a series of legal standards, including the recognition of a right to a healthy climate as a human right as well as the obligations of states and businesses to prevent irreversible environmental harm and guarantee the protection and restoration of ecosystems.

“Causing massive and irreversible environmental harm…alters the conditions for a healthy life on Earth to such an extent that it creates consequences of existential proportions. Therefore, it demands universal and effective legal responses,” said IACtHR President Nancy Hernández López.

The 234-page advisory opinion sets out the court’s perspective on the climate emergency and human rights, recognizing that states have legal obligations under international law to protect current and future generations from the impacts of climate change, to take “urgent and effective” action to cut greenhouse gas emissions, to adapt, to cooperate, and to guard against climate disinformation and greenwashing.

Presenting the opinion in San Jose, Costa Rica, López addressed the right to a healthy environment, saying for the first time that it includes the right to a stable climate – both for individuals and the coexistence of species. The court first explicitly recognized a legal right to a healthy environment in an advisory opinion it issued in 2017.

In this regard, the court affirmed states’ legal obligations to regulate emissions from both public and private organizations, singling out exploration, extraction, transportation and processing of fossil fuels, cement manufacturing and the agro-industry. It said they should consider requesting compensation from businesses not complying with environmental regulations and introduce laws to hold transnational corporations accountable fir the emissions of their subsidiaries.

Notably, a section of the opinion addressed environmental defenders, affirming states’ binding obligations not only to protect those who defend land, climate, and human rights but also to investigate those acts, punish those responsible, and ensure access to justice.

At least 2,106 environmental defenders – many of them being Indigenous people – have been killed between 2012 and 2023, according to Global Witness. Weak legal protections, high levels of corruption, and intense conflicts over land and resource exploitation make Latin America one of the most dangerous to operate in for environmental defenders.

“Without environmental defenders, there is no climate justice,” said Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) Senior Attorney Luisa Gómez Betancur, adding that the court’s opinion made it clear that protecting them “is not optional.”

López said climate change carries “extraordinary risks” disproportionately impacting the most vulnerable segments of society and concluded by stressing that there is no space for delayed climate action.

Wide-Reaching Opinion

The opinion came two years after Colombia and Chile submitted a joint request to the court. It saw unprecedented levels of participation, with over 260 written inputs and 160 oral presentations by states, civil society, Indigenous and Afro-descendant Peoples, and others on the frontline of the climate emergency during last year’s hearings in Barbados and Brazil.

While holding jurisdiction over 20 Latin American and Caribbean countries, the court on Thursday affirmed that the ruling, which takes into account a wide range of national, regional and international laws and principles, must guide the climate responses of all American states. This includes those who have failed to ratify the IACtHR – the US and Canada.

While not per se legally binding, the advisory opinion, as a review of binding international law, carries substantial legal weight and is poised to shape future climate policy and litigation.

“The Court has broken new ground and set a powerful precedent in affirming the human right to a healthy climate, the right to remedy and reparation of climate harm, and the absolute legal prohibition on conduct that causes irreversible damage to the environment and the climate on which all life depends,” said CIEL Climate & Energy Program Director Nikki Reisch, calling the opinion a “legal milestone” and a “blueprint for climate action and climate accountability.”

Second of Four

Thursday marked the second time an international court has issued an advisory opinion on climate change, after the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea issued its opinion last May. The UN court on maritime law reaffirmed that states must “take all necessary measures to prevent, reduce and control marine pollution from anthropogenic [greenhouse gas] emissions.”

More on the topic: The ITLOS Advisory Opinion Is a Stringent Call for Due-Diligence for Climate Impacts on Oceans

The International Court of Justice, the world’s top court, is also expected to issue an opinion in the coming months on the obligations of states under international law to protect the climate system and other parts of the environment. And in May, the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights was asked to weigh in on climate-related legal obligations of African states.

The post Countries Have Legal Duty to Protect Human Right to a Stable Climate, Top Court Rules appeared first on Earth.Org.

In the face of the “existential threat posed by climate change,” the new visa offers Tuvalu citizens a pathway to permanent residency in Australia. Since mid-June, more than a third of Tuvalu’s population has registered for an online ballot to obtain the world-first climate visa.

—

More than 1,000 Tuvalu nationals have entered the ballot to apply for an Australian visa since it opened earlier this month. When accounting for family members – including applicants’ spouses and children – the total surpassed 4,000. For an island that is home to some 10,000 people, the number is rather impressive.

Earth.Org looks at how the visa works and why it has gained so much traction in so little time.

How Does the Visa Work?

The Pacific Engagement Visa (PEV) – Treaty stream (Tuvalu) was created as part of a bilateral treaty between Australia and Tuvalu encompassing three crucial aspects: climate cooperation, mobility, and security.

The pathway to permanent residency is open to all Tuvalu citizens above 18 years of age, as long as they have not obtained their Tuvaluan citizenship through an investment to Tuvalu and are not citizens of New Zealand. While not specifically a climate visa, New Zealand also offers citizens of Tuvalu and three other Pacific Island nations a pathway to permanent residency through a ballot system.

Only up to 280 Tuvaluans will be granted the visa every year, which allows them to work, study or live in Australia. A job offer, contrary to other visa schemes for Pacific citizens, is not required.

To obtain it, applicants must first register to an online ballot, which opened on June 16 and will close on July 18. The random selection period will open on July 25 and conclude in January 2026.

World-First Climate Visa

While the visa itself does not mention climate change, the bilateral treaty Australia and Tuvalu that led to it does. Signed in late 2023, the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union treaty aims to protect the two countries’ shared interests in security, prosperity and stability “in the face of the existential threat posed by climate change.”

Recognizing climate change as Tuvalu’s “greatest national security concern,” Australia committed to providing assistance to the small nation in case of natural disasters and support for adaptation. Meanwhile, the mobility component of the treaty introduced a special pathway for Tuvaluans to live, study and work in Australia permanently and access benefits granted to permanent residents of the country, including public education and health services.

When announcing the treaty in 2023, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said it came in response to a request by Tuvalu “to safeguard the future of [its] people, identity and culture”.

“That is why we are assisting on adaptation, but we are also providing the security that these guarantees represent for the people of Tuvalu, who want to preserve their culture, want to preserve their very nation going forward as well,” Albanese said at the time.

Lying just 5 meters (16 feet) above sea levels, experts have warned that up to 90% of the archipelago could be underwater by 2100. But the small nation, home to nearly 11,000 people, is also facing other climate-related threats, including water scarcity, loss of crucial ecosystems and escalating extreme weather events, which are leading financial instability and huge cultural losses.

Over the past 50 years, nearly 1,500 disasters in the South-West Pacific have caused 66,951 deaths and over US$185 billion in economic losses, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

Despite contributing only 0.02% of global emissions, the region’s 14 Small Island Developing States, including Tuvalu, are particularly at risk from climate hazards. Sea levels in the region have risen nearly twice as fast as the global average, and sea surface temperatures have increased three times faster since the 1980s. In 2019, modellings by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology found that droughts and climate change-induced floods in the region have already increased in frequency by 30%, and are projected to increase by 90% in the first half of this century and 130% in the latter half.

More on the topic: Tuvalu’s Sinking Reality: How Climate Change Is Threatening the Small Island Nation

Other Pathways

A separate pathway to obtain permanent residency in Australia for Pacific and Timor-Leste nationals is the Pacific Engagement Visa. Citizens of the 10 participating countries who are aged between 18 and 45, as well as their partners and children, can apply for one of 3,000 visas available each year, also trough an online ballot. As permanent residents, visa holders will get access to Australia’s universal health care system Medicare, public schools, child care subsidies and family tax benefits.

In 2024, the program allocated 100 visas to Tuvalu nationals.

It also allocated 1,515 visas for Papua New Guinea nationals, 300 each for Fiji, Timor-Leste and Tonga nationals, 150 each for Solomon Islands, Nauru and Vanuatu, 24 for Federated States of Micronesia and 11 for Palau nationals.

Race Against Time

The rush for Australia’s new climate visa is emblematic of the existential threat faced by dozens of nations worldwide.

The growing threats of climate change are poised to reshape the world map, permanently altering borders, cultures and geopolitics. Unless the world acts now, the disappearance of Tuvalu will serve as a prelude to large-scale loss and suffering around the world.

Featured image: UNDP Pacific Office in Fiji via Flickr.

The post Explainer: What You Need to Know About Australia’s World-First Climate Visa for Tuvalu Citizens appeared first on Earth.Org.

Three quarters of the 2,967 climate cases filed globally to date were filed in the last decade, as the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 marked a turning point in climate litigation globally.

—

Climate litigation has entered a more “mature and complex” phase as its impacts become “increasingly visible”, according to a new report tracking trends and evolutions in the legal field.

The adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 marked a turning point in climate litigation globally, with nearly three quarters of all cases filed in the last decade. Since then, the legal field has consolidated as a popular strategy to tackle the ongoing climate crisis, used by governments, private actors, civil society and individuals locally, regionally, nationally and internationally, according to the report by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

At least 226 new climate cases were filed in 2024, bringing the total number of cases filed to date globally to 2,967, as per two databases compiled by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law.

But while in the majority of cases, plaintiffs seek legal avenues to hold government and corporations accountable for their contribution to climate change and inaction, a significant number of them – 60 last year alone – involve arguments that are not aligned with climate goals. The report mentions as examples lawsuits questioning governments’ authority in pursuing climate policy or companies’ sustainable agendas.

Recent developments in the US have shown that climate litigation is a “two-way street”, used both to help climate action and slow it down, said Joana Setzer, Associate Professorial Research Fellow at the Grantham Institute. She added that non-climate aligned litigation represents “new challenges for politicians, businesses and climate activists.”   

A growing number of cases, mostly involving government defendants but also corporate defendants, are also reaching top courts – such as supreme or constitutional courts, as per the Grantham report. It added that cases against corporations appear to be having a higher overall success rate.

Climate change at the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) – click to view

In April 2024, a ruling by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) made global headlines. Europe’s top human rights court sided with KlimaSeniorinnen (Senior Women for Climate Protection) – a group of more than 2,000 women aged 64 and over – in a case that saw the Swiss government accused of failing to adequately tackle the climate crisis.

The plaintiffs argued that their government’s failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions had violated their human rights, contending that more frequent and intense heatwaves – a result of climate change – are infringing on their rights to life and health. 

Based on the absence of a binding national greenhouse gas budget post 2024 and previous failure to meet emissions reduction targets, the court found a violation of the right to privacy and family life protected under Article 8 of the Convention, which it interpreted as freedom from environmental threats to one’s personal life. The Swiss state was ordered to put in place measures to address those shortcomings and cover the group’s legal costs, around €80,000 (US$87,000), within three months.

Gerry Liston, senior lawyer at the Global Legal Action Network (GLAN) – a non-profit behind a similar “government framework case” brought forward by four Portuguese children’s – called the Swiss ruling “a massive win for all generations.” 

“No European government’s climate policies are aligned with anything near 1.5C, so it will be clear to those working on climate litigation in those countries that there is now a clear basis to bring a case in their national courts,” Liston said. 

In recent years, there has been a notable surge in climate litigation with strategic intent, designed to push for more ambitious climate-related objectives and higher environmental standards, and to ensure transparency and accountability in climate-related decision-making processes.

According to the analysis – which is based on data collected in two databased by the Sabin Center, considered the most comprehensive database on the matter – over 80% of cases were classified as “strategic” in 2024.

“Governments and companies are increasingly having to consider the legal ramifications of pushing ahead with oil or gas projects, as they risk being dragged through the courts. [Climate litigation] is no longer a niche concern; it is increasingly seen as a financial risk,” said Catherine Higham, Senior Policy Fellow at the Grantham Institute.

Check out our explainer to learn more about the different types of climate litigation cases.

Regional Disparities

Of all cases filed in 2024, 164 were filed in the US, which remains the country with the highest number of cases filed year on year, followed by Australia, the UK and Brazil.

While still accounting for a much smaller proportion, climate litigation in the Global South is in a phase of “dynamic growth,” the institute said, with 60% of all cases recorded in the region filed in the last five years. One notable difference here is that more than half of all cases in the Global South are filed by government bodies, compared to just 5% in the Global North.

The legal field has also gained significant traction in China, where courts’ role in environmental governance is becoming more apparent, the report said. The number of environmental courts increased from 134 to 2,813 between 2014 and 2023, and prosecutors handled more than 1.9 million first-instance cases on climate-related topics, from carbon market regulations to the protection of carbon sinks and contracts related to the energy transition.

However, these cases are not yet captured in global databases – and therefore also not accounted for in the Grantham Institute’s report.

Impact Yet to Be Tested

While climate litigation continues to mature as a legal field, its impacts on climate governance, legislation and financial decision-making are becoming “increasingly visible” and “well documented”, said Higham.  

In 2024, several international courts, including the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACtHR) and the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) were asked to clarify states’ obligations on climate change. While representing only a small proportion of climate cases, their non-binding opinions are poised to shape the future of climate litigation, informing both domestic courts and international political processes.

The ITLOS is the only court to have published its advisory opinion thus far, stating last May that countries must “take all necessary measures to prevent, reduce and control marine pollution from anthropogenic [greenhouse gas] emissions.” While already referenced in at least one court proceeding in the UK, its real impact on climate litigation has yet to be tested, the report said.

More on the topic: The Recent ITLOS Advisory Opinion Is a Stringent Call for Due-Diligence for Climate Impacts on Oceans

The post Climate Litigation No Longer a ‘Niche Concern’, 226 New Cases Filed in 2024: Report appeared first on Earth.Org.