February Was Third Warmest on Record But Temperatures Still ‘Anomalously High’ For El Niño Aftermath

Last month was the first time a month has not been the warmest or second warmest on record since June 2023, climatologist Zeke Hausfather said on Tuesday.

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Global temperatures in February were the third-highest ever recorded for the month, breaking a 20-month streak of record-breaking or near-record temperatures.

At 1.59C, the average global surface temperature last month came in third after February 2024 and 2016, climate researcher Zeke Hausfather said in a post on social media X (formerly Twitter). Hausfather, who calculated the result using data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, also noted that it was the first time a month has not been the warmest or second warmest on record since June 2023.

Following a record-breaking January, scientists were startled by the unexpected persistence of high temperatures despite the anticipated arrival of a short-term cooling weather pattern known as La Niña. But last month’s temperatures might be a sign that La Niña conditions are finally kicking in, said Hausfather.

The weather pattern, which typically occurs every three to five years, is associated with the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. It come after El Niño pushed temperatures “off the chart” in 2023 and 2024, the hottest year on record.

Yet Hausfather warned that global temperatures remain “anomalously high” compared to prior El Niño aftermath events in the historical record.

1.5C Is ‘Dead’

Last month also marked the 19th month in the last 20 months for which the global-average surface air temperature was higher than 1.5C above the pre-industrial level. 2024 was the first year on record to surpass the 1.5C mark.

The critical threshold was established at the 2015 COP21 climate summit, when 196 parties signed the legally binding Paris Agreement. They agreed to keep limiting global warming to below 1.5C or “well below 2C” above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Beyond this limit, experts warn that critical tipping points will be breached, leading to devastating and potentially irreversible consequences for several vital Earth systems that sustain a hospitable planet.

While recent developments do not signal a permanent breach of the critical limit, which scientists say is measured over decades, it sends a clear warning to humanity that we are approaching the point of no return much faster than expected. In fact, the United Nations estimates that current emissions reduction pledges put the planet on track for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1C over the course of this century.

Scientists are not optimistic either. A survey of 380 IPCC scientists conducted by the Guardian last May revealed that 77% of them believe humanity is headed for at least 2.5C of warming.

And last month, renowned climatologist James Hansen said even the 2C target “is dead” after his latest paper concluded that Earth’s climate is more sensitive to rising greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought. The former top NASA climate scientist famously announced to the US Congress in 1988 that global warming was underway.⁣

Featured image: Keith Bryant/Flickr.